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둘째는 2년 된 시리아 내전이다. 2011년 3월 이후 러시아와 이란의 지원을 받는 바샤르 아사드 정권은 자국민을 상대로 전쟁을 벌이고 있다. 인명 희생이 엄청나게 불어나 전투에서 7만명가량 사망했고 120만명 이상의 난민이 시리아를 떠나 레바논, 요르단, 터키 및 여타 지역으로 피난했다.
미국 정부가 질서회복을 위한 뚜렷한 전략을 내놓지 못하고 있는 상황에서 또 다른 4가지 중요한 중동의 전략적 추세가 주목을 받지 못하고 있다. 주목을 벗어났으나 관심을 기울일 필요가 있는 중동의 발화지점 4곳을 간단히 살펴볼 필요가 있다.
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| 일란 버먼 美 외교정책협회 부회장 |
이로 인한 경제적 결과는 파괴적이다. 이코노미스트 잡지에 따르면, 이집트의 인플레율은 공식적으로 13%에 도달했으며 실제는 이보다 훨씬 높을 것으로 추정된다. 또한 인구의 25%가 빈곤선 이하다. 외화보유액은 계속 줄어 재앙적인 수준인 130억달러로 추산된다. 이는 3개월치 수입대금에 불과하다.
국내의 혼란 때문에, 필요한 자금을 국제통화기금으로부터 받지 못하고 있다. 그 결과 현지 관리 한 사람은 7000만 인구가 사는 국가가 실패할 가능성이 있다고 이미 오래전에 지적한 바 있다. 이집트의 국가파탄은 정치와 안보에 커다란 위험부담을 초래하게 된다.
헤즈볼라가 변화하고 있다. 레바논의 테러 중심세력인 헤즈볼라는 이란과 시리아 같은 불량국가들과의 관계 덕분에 커다란 영향력을 행사했다. 이란 한 나라만 매년 2억달러를 헤즈볼라에 지원한 것으로 추산되었다. 시리아는 중요한 무기와 물자의 재보급 통로 구실을 했다. 그러나 이란에 대한 국제사회의 압력이 커지고 시리아의 국내혼란이 악화되어 양국의 지원이 줄어들었다.
그 결과 헤즈볼라는 현저한 변형을 하고 있다. 현찰부족에 직면한 이 테러단체는 과거의 범죄행위로 되돌아가 라틴아메리카와 아시아 지역에서 불법활동을 통한 재정자립을 강화하고 있다. 불법활동 가운데는 무기밀매, 신용카드 사기, 화폐위조가 포함된다.
예멘의 국내혼란이 악화되고 있다. 올해 초 미국과 예멘 당국은 페르시아만 남부 국가인 예멘 근해에서 이란선적의 화물선을 나포하여 중국제 무기를 적발했다. 무기를 받을 예정인 예멘 남서부의 이슬람 시아파 반군은 이란의 지원을 받는다. 2004년 이후 예멘에서 3개의 반군단체가 정부군과 싸우고 있다. 지난 2년 동안 반군들의 활동 규모와 범위가 커졌다. 그 결과 예멘은 국가 실패의 길로 급속히 치닫고 있다.
이란이 이라크 장악을 강화하고 있다. 이라크 독재자 사담 후세인을 축출하고 10년이 지난 오늘날 이란이 이라크 전쟁의 확고한 승자로 떠올랐다. 그래서 미국이 만든 이라크공화국을 이란의 동맹세력이 지배한다는 말이 나온다. 미국의 이라크 정책이 본의 아니게 이란의 영향력을 키웠다. 이란은 중동의 북부에 대한 영향력을 확장하여 이슬람 수니파 아랍국가들 특히 사우디아라비아를 위협하고 있다.
이상의 개별적인 사태발전은 여러 가지 중동문제의 형태를 바꿀 수 있는 힘을 갖고 있다. 함께 작용할 때에는 중동의 지정학 지도를 다시 그릴 수도 있다.
일란 버먼 美 외교정책협회 부회장
워싱턴타임스·정리=오성환 외신전문위원
Overlooked Middle East crises
By Ilan Berman
These days, American policy toward the Middle East tends to be dominated by two regional crises.
The first is the long-running showdown with Iran over its nuclear program. Despite mounting Western financial pressure, the Islamic republic shows no signs of changing course. To the contrary, Iran's leaders have defiantly tightened their fiscal belts and redoubled their efforts to cross the nuclear Rubicon. Meanwhile, negotiations between Tehran and the West have concluded predictably, without any tangible progress on bringing the Iranian regime's nuclear ambitions to heel.
The second is the 2-year-old civil war in Syria. Since March 2011, with the help of Russia and Iran, the regime of Bashar Assad in Damascus has waged a bloody war against its own people. The human toll has been immense: Some 70,000 people have been killed in the fighting, and more than 1.2 million others have fled Syria for Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and elsewhere. Official Washington, meanwhile, still lacks anything resembling a coherent strategy for addressing the disorder.
Left largely unnoticed are four other significant strategic trends in the region. Herewith, a brief tour of the Middle East flash points that you're probably not watching but should be:
Egypt's economic meltdown. Since widespread protests toppled strongman Hosni Mubarak in the spring of 2011, the Egyptian state has been staring into an economic abyss. During the past two years, pro-democracy activists as well as the country's powerful military have been progressively shouldered aside by the Muslim Brotherhood and its Islamist fellow travelers. These new power brokers have assumed a commanding presence in Cairo and have set about imposing their ideological agenda on the country writ large.
The economic consequences have been devastating. According to The Economist, the national rate of inflation officially stands at 13 percent (and unofficially is estimated to be significantly higher), and fully a quarter of the country's population lives under the poverty line. Foreign reserves are being depleted at a catastrophic rate. Egypt is estimated to have just $13 billion left, "barely enough to cover three months' imports." Domestic disarray, moreover, has prevented the disbursement of desperately needed foreign capital from the International Monetary Fund and skittish foreign donors. As a result, one regional official wryly noted not long ago that we could be looking at "state failure on the level of 70 million souls," with all of the political and security risks that that implies.
Hezbollah's metamorphosis.Lebanon's terrorist powerhouse Hezbollah historically has had a commanding presence in regional affairs, thanks largely to its relationship with rogue state sponsors Iran and Syria. Iran alone was estimated at one time to provide the militia with as much as $200 million annually in operating revenue, while Syria served as a crucial resupply route for arms and materiel. But growing international pressure on Iran and mounting domestic disorder in Syria have caused both to pare back their once-generous assistance to the group.
As a result, Hezbollah has begun to undergo a significant transformation. Increasingly short on cash, the organization has gone back to its criminal roots stepping up its illicit activities in locales such as Latin America and Asia. These activities, according to Matthew Levitt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, include "arms smuggling, credit card fraud and counterfeiting." By doing so, "the group has bolstered its assets and gained greater monetary independence."
Yemen's domestic disorder. Earlier this year, U.S. and local authorities apprehended an Iranian-flagged vessel off the coast of the southern Gulf state of Yemen. The ship was found to be carrying Chinese-origin arms intended for the Shiite rebels in Yemen's northwest, whom Iran supports. Those fighters, known as the Houthis, have waged a violent campaign against the Yemeni government since 2004. Their goals: autonomy and the elimination of the corrupt regime in Sanaa.
The Houthis are not alone. Yemen is home to two other significant civil conflicts. The first is a secessionist movement in the country's underprivileged south, which happens to sit along a strategic oil-shipping route known as the Bab el Mandeb. The second is the local insurgency being run by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the regional franchise. That campaign has grown in size and scope over the past two years, with the organization now estimated to control seven provinces and field a force that numbers more than 1,000 fighters. The result is that Yemen is fast becoming the region's next failed state.
Iran's takeover of Iraq. A decade after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, Iran has emerged as the unquestioned winner in the Iraq War. "Iranian allies dominate the Iraqi republic forged by the Americans," an analysis by the intelligence group Stratfor notes. "The U.S. initiative unintentionally allowed Tehran to project influence across the northern rim of the Middle East and threaten the interests of the Sunni Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia."
Iran's vast web of influence includes various Shiite militias operating inside and outside the Iraqi government, power brokers on the Iraqi political scene, and a clandestine presence by its clerical army, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, on the territory of its eastern neighbor. The result, in the words of one observer, is that "Iran has something akin to veto power in Iraq." Iraqi politicians, in other words, know full well exactly who will remain a force to be reckoned with long after the coalition has left.
By themselves, each of these developments has the power to reshape regional affairs. Together, they could help redraw the geopolitical map of the Middle East. Policymakers in Washington, who are preoccupied with Iran's nuclearization and Syria's civil strife, should take notice. They also should begin thinking beyond Tehran and Damascus.
By Ilan Berman
These days, American policy toward the Middle East tends to be dominated by two regional crises.
The first is the long-running showdown with Iran over its nuclear program. Despite mounting Western financial pressure, the Islamic republic shows no signs of changing course. To the contrary, Iran's leaders have defiantly tightened their fiscal belts and redoubled their efforts to cross the nuclear Rubicon. Meanwhile, negotiations between Tehran and the West have concluded predictably, without any tangible progress on bringing the Iranian regime's nuclear ambitions to heel.
The second is the 2-year-old civil war in Syria. Since March 2011, with the help of Russia and Iran, the regime of Bashar Assad in Damascus has waged a bloody war against its own people. The human toll has been immense: Some 70,000 people have been killed in the fighting, and more than 1.2 million others have fled Syria for Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and elsewhere. Official Washington, meanwhile, still lacks anything resembling a coherent strategy for addressing the disorder.
Left largely unnoticed are four other significant strategic trends in the region. Herewith, a brief tour of the Middle East flash points that you're probably not watching but should be:
Egypt's economic meltdown. Since widespread protests toppled strongman Hosni Mubarak in the spring of 2011, the Egyptian state has been staring into an economic abyss. During the past two years, pro-democracy activists as well as the country's powerful military have been progressively shouldered aside by the Muslim Brotherhood and its Islamist fellow travelers. These new power brokers have assumed a commanding presence in Cairo and have set about imposing their ideological agenda on the country writ large.
The economic consequences have been devastating. According to The Economist, the national rate of inflation officially stands at 13 percent (and unofficially is estimated to be significantly higher), and fully a quarter of the country's population lives under the poverty line. Foreign reserves are being depleted at a catastrophic rate. Egypt is estimated to have just $13 billion left, "barely enough to cover three months' imports." Domestic disarray, moreover, has prevented the disbursement of desperately needed foreign capital from the International Monetary Fund and skittish foreign donors. As a result, one regional official wryly noted not long ago that we could be looking at "state failure on the level of 70 million souls," with all of the political and security risks that that implies.
Hezbollah's metamorphosis.Lebanon's terrorist powerhouse Hezbollah historically has had a commanding presence in regional affairs, thanks largely to its relationship with rogue state sponsors Iran and Syria. Iran alone was estimated at one time to provide the militia with as much as $200 million annually in operating revenue, while Syria served as a crucial resupply route for arms and materiel. But growing international pressure on Iran and mounting domestic disorder in Syria have caused both to pare back their once-generous assistance to the group.
As a result, Hezbollah has begun to undergo a significant transformation. Increasingly short on cash, the organization has gone back to its criminal roots stepping up its illicit activities in locales such as Latin America and Asia. These activities, according to Matthew Levitt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, include "arms smuggling, credit card fraud and counterfeiting." By doing so, "the group has bolstered its assets and gained greater monetary independence."
Yemen's domestic disorder. Earlier this year, U.S. and local authorities apprehended an Iranian-flagged vessel off the coast of the southern Gulf state of Yemen. The ship was found to be carrying Chinese-origin arms intended for the Shiite rebels in Yemen's northwest, whom Iran supports. Those fighters, known as the Houthis, have waged a violent campaign against the Yemeni government since 2004. Their goals: autonomy and the elimination of the corrupt regime in Sanaa.
The Houthis are not alone. Yemen is home to two other significant civil conflicts. The first is a secessionist movement in the country's underprivileged south, which happens to sit along a strategic oil-shipping route known as the Bab el Mandeb. The second is the local insurgency being run by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the regional franchise. That campaign has grown in size and scope over the past two years, with the organization now estimated to control seven provinces and field a force that numbers more than 1,000 fighters. The result is that Yemen is fast becoming the region's next failed state.
Iran's takeover of Iraq. A decade after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, Iran has emerged as the unquestioned winner in the Iraq War. "Iranian allies dominate the Iraqi republic forged by the Americans," an analysis by the intelligence group Stratfor notes. "The U.S. initiative unintentionally allowed Tehran to project influence across the northern rim of the Middle East and threaten the interests of the Sunni Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia."
Iran's vast web of influence includes various Shiite militias operating inside and outside the Iraqi government, power brokers on the Iraqi political scene, and a clandestine presence by its clerical army, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, on the territory of its eastern neighbor. The result, in the words of one observer, is that "Iran has something akin to veto power in Iraq." Iraqi politicians, in other words, know full well exactly who will remain a force to be reckoned with long after the coalition has left.
By themselves, each of these developments has the power to reshape regional affairs. Together, they could help redraw the geopolitical map of the Middle East. Policymakers in Washington, who are preoccupied with Iran's nuclearization and Syria's civil strife, should take notice. They also should begin thinking beyond Tehran and Damascus.
